The decisive victory of Bucharest's mayor, the centrist pro-European Nicusor Dan, in the Romanian presidential election on Sunday, May 18, was met with relief in Brussels, at the headquarters of the European Commission and NATO, given that his opponent's election was a real possibility. George Simion, the far-right nationalist candidate, achieved an unprecedented score in the first round, garnering 41% of the votes.
After initially contesting the results in the evening, Simion eventually conceded defeat in light of the final count. With nearly 54% of the votes for Dan, Romania avoided an American-style scenario, a denial of the outcome such as the one orchestrated by Donald Trump in 2020. It also escaped the severe problems that Simion's election would have caused: tensions with the Hungarian minority, difficult relations with the European Union and its member states and the questioning of aid to Ukraine by a country on NATO's eastern flank. This is thus very good news for Europe.
However, it should be tempered by the undeniable rise of the far right, not only in Romania but in two other countries whose voters went to the polls on Sunday: Poland and Portugal, in the east and west of the European Union.
In Poland, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, a centrist and pro-European candidate, led the first round of the presidential election with 31.3% of the vote. But the gap between him and his main rival, Karol Nawrocki (29.5%), the candidate of the conservative nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS), is much narrower than anticipated by the polls. More importantly, the PiS is now being outflanked on its right by the far-right Konfederacja party, whose candidate, Slawomir Mentzen, garnered 14.8%. Adding the scores of Nawrocki and Mentzen to the 6.3% of another far-right candidate, the anti-Semitic Grzegorz Braun, results in a bloc of 50% of the vote, significantly higher than the center-right candidate's score.
While the transfer of votes to other candidates is not yet certain, it must be a top concern for Trzaskowski's team, supported by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, between now and the second round scheduled for June 1. A victory for the nationalist candidate in the Central European country would also have significant implications for the European Union and Ukraine. The stakes extend far beyond Poland's borders: The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), led by Donald Trump's loyalists, is being held in Poland for the first time on May 26 and 27, just before the second round. The participation of US Vice President JD Vance is being touted as a possibility in political circles in Warsaw.
In Portugal, although center-right Prime Minister Luis Montenegro can consider himself bolstered by the legislative election results, as his party improved its score (32.7%) and gained seats in Parliament, he lacks a clear majority. Montenegro must also contend with the rise of the far-right party Chega (22.6%), which is closely trailing the Portuguese Socialist Party (23.4%) as the main opposition party. These two parties now have the same number of MPs, in a Parliament divided into three blocs that is reminiscent of the French situation. This is indeed a European trend – and a wake-up call.