A Soviet spacecraft that has been stranded in space for 53 years is set to plummet back to Earth .
Launched by the USSR in 1972, the Kosmos 482 lander was intended to reach Venus. However, it never made it to the planet's surface and has instead been orbiting Earth ever since.
Now known as Cosmos 482, the craft is expected to make an "uncontrolled reentry" through Earth's atmosphere this weekend.
As of Friday morning (May 9), the European Space Agency (ESA) estimates that Kosmos 482 will reenter at 06:26 UTC (7.26 am UK time) on Saturday, May 10, 2025, with a margin of error of around +/- 4.35 hours.
However, it remains uncertain where and when exactly the craft will descend, reports the Manchester Evening News.
So, how are scientists tracking Kosmos 482?
A range of organisations, including space agencies, aerospace companies and even the US military, are monitoring the space debris, running various reentry models as more data on Kosmos 482's trajectory becomes available.
Marco Langbroek, a lecturer in space situational awareness at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, explains that the large uncertainty in the predictions of its reentry is due to the inability to "we cannot accurately predict future solar activity."
Langbroek explained to the Manchester Evening News: "Solar activity – charged particles expelled from the sun and entering our atmosphere – is variable from day-to-day and even hour-to-hour and has a strong influence on the density and extent from the surface of the upper atmosphere."
Further clarifying the situation, he stated: "Closer to the reentry, in the hours directly before it, the area can be refined a bit better than we currently can, but even then the uncertainties remain large."
As speculation rises over where Kosmos 482 may plummet to Earth, experts note its robust build.
Tipping the scales at about 500 kilograms and being sheathed in a titanium case crafted to endure Venus' formidable climate, there's a high probability it could survive the journey back through Earth's atmosphere unscathed, potentially crashing onto the planet’s surface.
Researchers have postulated that Kosmos 482 could descend within a strip spanning from 52 degrees north latitude to 52 degrees south latitude.
This stretch encompasses approximately half the global population and includes whole continents such as Africa, South America, Australia, and New Zealand, in addition to the majority of Europe and Asia. Almost every significant city across the globe falls within this band, spanning from New York to London to Beijing.
The accompanying map delineates this region with yellow and green lines:
In terms of potential danger zones within the UK, only the southern parts of England and Wales would need to keep an eye out for the falling spacecraft, placing areas like Milton Keynes, Cambridge, and Ipswich within its possible impact path.
The precise landing spot of Kosmos 482 remains a mystery, although with around 71% of our planet's surface being water, it is far more probable that the spacecraft will make a splashdown rather than a crash landing on solid ground.
Is there a chance Kosmos 482 could strike a person?
Astrophysicist Dr Jonathan McDowell from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics downplayed such concerns, stressing that the likelihood of Kosmos 482 striking individuals is negligible and "no need for major concern" exists. Still, he cautioned, "you wouldn't want it bashing you on the head".
Dr McDowell explained the 500kg spacecraft would enter Earth's atmosphere at a significantly reduced speed compared to a meteorite, emitting considerably less energy in the process. He equated its potential impact to something akin to that of a light plane, similar to a Cessna.
"Drop a half ton weight from a big height. It'll wreck your house if it lands on it, but the damage will be localised to a few yards," he stated during an interview with M.E.N.
Concurring with this perspective, space debris expert Langbroek suggests the debris might "smash through a roof", albeit he stresses one would have to be exceptionally "unlucky" to be directly hit by it.
Per Langbroek's evaluations, the odds of being struck by lightning are greater than those of being impacted by Kosmos 482. He estimates that upon re-entry, the spacecraft will hurtle towards Earth at a velocity between 65 and 70 metres per second - roughly equivalent to the speed of a high-speed train.
Langbroek emphasized: "This is a small object with a very localized risk at impact – a few square meters maximum. You have to be very unlucky for it to hit you."
