It’s official, La Niña is no more.
Neutral conditions have prevailed and replaced the weak La Niña weather pattern, which had been present this last winter, according to the latest by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, otherwise known as the ENSO cycle — is a recurring climate pattern pertaining to changes in the water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, according to the weather service.
Over time, the sea surface temperatures tend to either grow warmer or cooler. This is what the weather service refers to as the ENSO cycle.
ENSO-neutral conditions are present when water temperatures are normal, neither below nor above-average.
La Niña's cool waters push the jet stream northward over the U.S. During La Niña winters, the South typically sees warmer conditions while the North experiences cooler conditions. This graphic by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration illustrates the conditions resulting from La Niña. (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)(Courtesy of The National Oceani
La Niña is the cold phase of this cycle while El Niño is the warm phase. During the former, cold water conditions are prevalent and trade winds enhanced, directing warm water toward Asia, ultimately cooling waters off the West Coast, as detailed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. When this happens in the winter, temperatures are generally warmer than usual in the South and colder than normal in the North.
While La Niña was in place this past winter, it was weakened and so the impact it had on U.S. weather was minimized.
A shift to neutral conditions
In February, the Climate Prediction Center first indicated that below-average sea surface temperatures weakened in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
In analyzing these water temperatures and anomalies associated with La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, the Climate Prediction Center was able to conclude that La Niña conditions were weakening, paving the way for ENSO-neutral conditions.
Now, as of an April 10 report by the Climate Prediction Center, the ocean-atmosphere system reflects ENSO-neutral conditions.
More than that, ENSO-neutral conditions are forecast to continue through the summer of 2025, with the odds of such being “well over 50%.”
Although the Climate Prediction Center admits that long range forecasts in the spring have some uncertainty, it is currently held that there is a 43% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through January of 2026.
If this were to be the case and ENSO-neutral conditions lingered through the winter, residents of the U.S. could anticipate the likelihood of normal wintry conditions in their respective regions.
However, there is also a 38% chance that La Niña makes a return in November and persists through January of 2026.