African Union (AU) mediators landed in South Sudan’s capital, Juba, on Wednesday for critical talks aimed at averting a return to civil war. Their arrival comes amid heightened tensions following the house arrest of First Vice President Riek Machar last week—a development that threatens the fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement.

President Salva Kiir’s administration accuses Machar, a former rebel leader and key signatory to the peace deal, of inciting rebellion. Machar was detained after clashes escalated in Upper Nile state between government forces and the White Army militia. While Machar’s forces had previous ties with the militia during the civil war, his party denies current connections.

The AU delegation, led by its “Council of the Wise,” includes high-profile figures like former Burundian President Domitien Ndayizeye and former Kenyan judge Effie Owuor. Their mission is to de-escalate tensions and reinforce the peace process. The AU Peace and Security Council has demanded Machar’s immediate and unconditional release, warning that his detention jeopardizes the 2018 accord.

Separately, Raila Odinga, Kenya’s former Prime Minister, arrived in Juba earlier in the week to mediate on behalf of an East African bloc. Despite meeting with Kiir, Odinga was denied access to Machar, highlighting the challenges mediators face in resolving the crisis.

Analysts suggest that Kiir’s actions may be an attempt to consolidate political power amidst unrest within his own camp. Additionally, instability in neighboring Sudan has worsened regional dynamics, with an influx of weapons fueling the tensions.

The 2013-2018 conflict, marked by ethnic divisions between Kiir’s Dinka forces and Machar’s Nuer-aligned troops, looms over the current developments, increasing fears of renewed violence.

South Sudan’s future hangs in the balance as mediators strive to navigate this precarious situation.

EN ESTA NOTA: