A progressive weather pattern across the United States continues into early April. A new Winter Storm is forecast from Tuesday into Wednesday. Another bomb cyclone rapidly develops over the central U.S. on Tuesday, inducing more heavy snow blizzards for the North and a multi-day severe and tornado outbreak for the Central and Southern United States.
From Tuesday through Thursday, a pronounced deep wave will move from the West Coast across the Rockies into the Great Plains, intensifying snowfall across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Mid-week, a deep cold wave will move across the nation, developing another bomb cyclone over the Central United States.
The primary focus is the potential multi-day severe weather and tornado outbreak that could occur across the central and southern U.S. from Tuesday afternoon through Saturday night.
A significant frontal system will emerge from the Pacific into the West Coast late Monday into Tuesday, bringing intense snowfall across the Sierra mountains and heavy rain to California. On Tuesday, the deep trough will move across the Rockies and emerge in the Great Plains with heavy snowfall spreading east.
Weather conditions will rapidly deteriorate as a bomb cyclone occurs Tuesday morning across Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. Surface pressure will quickly deepen once the upper wave/trough ejects the Rockies, reaching below 985 mbar.
On Sunday night, the satellite view revealed an extensive frontal system and severe weather outbreak from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes. Further west, a new potent upper wave is already nearing the Pacific Northwest.
This wave will travel east across the Contiguous U.S. mid this week and will be our main interest.
The video animation below provides a quick overview of the storm dynamics across the Contiguous U.S. this week. On Tuesday, an intense winter storm will push central pressure to near 985 mbar over the Great Plains, producing severe weather outbreaks across the Central and South U.S. with heavy snow blizzards across the Dakotas and the Upper Midwest.
In addition, more ice storms are forecast from Wisconsin across northern Michigan to southern Ontario—generally over the same areas badly hit last weekend.
Let’s examine the details of the following winter storm’s evolution. Tens of millions along the storm’s path will experience significant weather conditions from Tuesday through Saturday. The storm will also impact the West Coast, the East Coast, and the Southeast U.S.
A deep wave emerges into the U.S., bomb cyclone and Winter Storm Omari impact on Tuesday and Wednesday
A deep upper wave emerges from the North Pacific into the West Coast on Monday, continuing east across the Rockies on Tuesday. It will appear over the northern Great Plains early Tuesday and deepen further.
A significant cold core will develop, introducing a sharp pressure and temperature gradient towards the ground.
An associated surface low will occur over Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska, rapidly strengthening and pushing its central pressure below 985 mbar, continuing to strengthen into a Winter Storm. The low will move northeast across the Midwest Tuesday through Wednesday and reach southern Ontario, Canada, early Thursday.
It is forecast to reach a mature stage by Wednesday morning, fully developed as a powerful winter storm. Weather conditions will be extreme on the lows’ cold and warm sides. While heavy snow and strong winds will build blizzard conditions across the Dakotas into Minnesota, conditions will rapidly worsen across the warm sector further south.
Tuesday night, the low will be located over eastern Kansas, and a cold front will accompany it from grazing into the warm sector with a much warmer air mass across the southern States. A widespread severe weather outbreak is forecast to develop. Severe thunderstorms will pose a threat of numerous tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
On the cold side of the winter storm, snowfall will intensify across Colorado and northern Nebraska into the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin by Wednesday. The snow blizzard will significantly intensify across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Intense snowfall with near-zero visibility from blowing snow is expected.
Due to the intense pressure gradient around the surface low, severe winds will develop across the High Plains late Tuesday morning. They will cross Colorado and New Mexico into Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. They will continue overnight into early Wednesday as the center low moves northeast.
Ahead of the deep trough and the surface low, a much warmer air mass will be dragged from the south towards the Great Lakes region, introducing a sharp contrast to the cold side of the cyclone to the west.
This is also why the weather conditions will be wild and rapidly changing on Tuesday and Wednesday as the winter storm advances across the U.S.
Fresh snow is forecast to accumulate from the Rockies across the Dakotas to Minnesota and Ontario, Canada. This aligns with the timing and path of the winter storm, which will develop on Tuesday and move across the nation through Thursday.
Heavy snowfall will accumulate across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. By Saturday night, there will be around two feet of snow in South Dakota. Expect significant traffic interruptions from heavy snow and near-zero visibility from blowing snow with an intense snow blizzard developing.
With more precipitation spreading across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ontario, conditions will again support freezing rain and ice storms in the same areas that were severely hit on Saturday and Sunday.
An additional 1-2″ of freezing rain from early Wednesday into Thursday could accumulate from northern Wisconsin across northern Michigan into southern Ontario.
The following 2m temperature chart indicates that strong southern winds will drag higher temperatures across the warm sector over the Great Plains ahead of Tuesday’s surface low.
This will result in a warm day far north toward the Midwest. Conditions will become unstable as high moisture is absorbed from the deep South. Widespread severe weather and a tornado outbreak will likely develop across the yellow zone.
A warmer and moist air mass across the warm sector over the central and Southeast U.S. will fuel the eastward-racing severe thunderstorms along the leading cold front through Tuesday night into Wednesday. A multi-day outbreak is forecast.
Winter Storm forecast to produce a multi-day Severe Weather Outbreak across the Central, South, and the Southeast U.S.
A combination of a significant upper cold wave, clashing with warmer sub-tropical air mass, a vigorous frontal system develops. A winter storm Omari will introduce a widespread severe weather outbreak across the Central, Southern, and Southeast U.S., from eastern Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas to the mid- and lower Mississippi Valley.
With the deepening of the low, conditions will rapidly deteriorate on Tuesday afternoon as the winter storm advances northeast. A sharp pressure and temperature contrast throughout the atmosphere will strengthen the jet stream aloft, supporting organized severe storms along the front.
This is a textbook on the evolution of spring weather patterns across the central U.S.
Tuesday night, significant severe weather, including widespread supercell thunderstorms, is forecast across Nebraska and Kansas near the center low, gradually spreading east into Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Those could be tornadic, with strong shear in place combined with a very warm air mass surrounding the core.
From overnight to Wednesday morning, severe thunderstorms across the south will continue east across low—to mid-Missisippi Valley into Tennesee and Ohio Valley during the day. Widespread outbreaks of intense supercell storms with tornadoes, severe winds, and significant hail events are possible.
This will provide a volatile, sheared environment for strong tornadoes and damaging winds with the most intense thunderstorms.
The following 850 mbar winds on Tuesday night hint at strong southerlies, leading to ample wind shear that supports organized and widespread severe thunderstorms.
Powerful winds will again follow the low across the High Plains. Peak wind gusts will likely reach 70-80 mph in some Colorado and New Mexico areas.
Attached is an outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for Tuesday afternoon and evening. A widespread severe weather outbreak is expected to develop along the leading cold front moving east across the central Great Plains and Midwest.
Severe thunderstorms pose a significant risk of tornadoes, large hail, and severe winds.
The convective activity along the cold front racing across the South and Southeast U.S. will continue east on Wednesday.
Low-level winds will be robust across the south and Southeast U.S., supporting strongly organized storms.
A widespread severe weather outbreak will continue toward Tennessee and the Ohio Valley. On Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center expects a large area to be at least ENH (Enhanced) Risk.
It will likely be upgraded into an MDT (Moderate) Risk in the further updates.
Due to the high moisture in place with this winter storm, the amount of rain along the frontal system will be significant across the Southeast U.S. A combination of persistent and widespread intense thunderstorms and clusters will lead to high rainfall sums and flooding.
From Monday through Sunday, 5 to 10+ inches of rain can accumulate across the low- and mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Major flooding is likely!
The highest precipitation amounts are forecast across southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky.
Severe Weather outbreak to continue on Thursday through Saturday
The winter storm Omari will mature by Wednesday night, meaning its central pressure will start rising while the low will be ejecting Wisconsin and Minnesota to Ontario, Canada.
Meanwhile, another wave will move into the southwest U.S. and continue to support warm and moist air mass from the Gulf of America into the southern and central states. With a persistent, powerful jet stream aloft, conditions will remain supportive of severe thunderstorms.
The chart above shows a multi-day severe weather outbreak that will continue across similar areas, including strong tornadoes from Thursday through Saturday.
Conditions will gradually improve over the weekend as the cold wave emerges from Canada towards the south. It will bring back much colder temperatures into the Rockies and the central U.S.; however, it will remain pretty warm across the Southeast U.S. early next week.
We are closely monitoring the evolution of the ongoing pattern and will update you accordingly. Stay tuned.
Wxcharts, Windy, and Pivotalweather provided images used in this article.