Hiiraan Online

Dangerous rhetoric

Abiy’s rhetoric is not only provocative but also dangerous. Ethiopia does not lack sea access – it has full access to the Djibouti port, one of the most advanced in the region, with sufficient capacity to handle Ethiopian trade. If necessary, Ethiopia could negotiate amicable agreements with Somalia and/or Eritrea for additional access.

The prime minister’s remarks, however, go beyond trade concerns. Citing historical rights, he insists that Ethiopia must secure a Red Sea port, despite having had unimpeded trade access through Djibouti since Eritrea’s independence in 1993. His statement signals a willingness to use force, raising concerns that Ethiopia may seek to exploit Somalia’s internal divisions and fragility.

Abiy’s remarks before Parliament should, therefore, be seen for what they are — a thinly veiled threat of aggression. In a related manner, it is being suggested that Prime Minister Abiy is considering taking control of the Assab port, which would be a breach of Eritrean sovereignty and international rules. Even if these statements are purely for public consumption, they have the potential to incite unnecessary conflict.

A US Navy vessel motors through the harbour of Djibouti City, Djibouti, 17 April 2024. (Photo: Diana Zeyneb Alhindawi / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The Horn of Africa: A region shaped by conflict

The Horn of Africa has long been scarred by war and instability. The 1977–78 Somalia-Ethiopia war claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced millions of civilians. The 1998–2000 Ethiopian-Eritrean war left an estimated 150,000 dead. South Sudan’s ongoing civil war has killed 380,000 and displaced 1.5 million, while Eritrea’s independence war (1955–2005) resulted in between 2 million and 3 million deaths.

Sudan’s current civil war has already caused an estimated 60,000 to 150,000 deaths, displaced 8 million internally, and forced 2 million to flee into neighbouring countries. Ethiopia’s Tigray war (2020–2022) killed over 100,000 and displaced 3.75 million, while the ongoing Amhara rebellion has added at least 15,000 more casualties, alongside the country’s long-standing Oromo insurgencies.

Even smaller states, such as Djibouti and Eritrea, have faced conflicts, including the 2008 border clashes that severed diplomatic ties for a decade.

Beyond the staggering human toll, these wars have crippled economies, disrupted trade, destroyed infrastructure and drained national resources. They have deepened poverty, weakened education and healthcare systems, and deterred foreign investment. This persistent cycle of violence continues to destabilise the region, making sustainable development an elusive goal.

Ethiopia does not lack sea access

Despite being landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, Ethiopia has enjoyed uninterrupted trade through Djibouti’s port, which remains strategically positioned to facilitate Ethiopian shipping needs. Additionally, Ethiopia has the option to negotiate with Somalia and Eritrea for further access. However, its push for an exclusive seaport — both for civilian and military use — is unnecessarily provocative and risks exacerbating regional tensions.

Ethiopia is not alone in its landlocked status. There are 44 landlocked countries worldwide, including 16 in Africa. Some, like Liechtenstein and Uzbekistan, are even doubly landlocked. These nations rely on regional cooperation and trade agreements — not coercion or force — to access global markets. Ethiopia’s approach is unprecedented; no other landlocked nation has attempted to seize its neighbours’ territories under the pretext of economic necessity.

Economic protectionism and its role

Ethiopia’s aggressive pursuit of a Somali seaport is also rooted in economic protectionism. While Ethiopian goods, such as the narcotic plant khat, flow freely into Somalia, Somali goods are prohibited from legally entering Ethiopia. Ethiopian border guards routinely confiscate any Somali imports deemed to have commercial value.

Ethiopia’s demand for its own port appears to be an attempt to sustain this protectionist stance rather than foster regional trade or economic integration. Instead of pursuing mutually beneficial trade relationships, Ethiopia is perpetuating outdated economic policies inherited from the Marxist regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam, a strategy that risks alienating its neighbours and heightening regional tensions.

Personal ambitions

Since the passing of Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia has endured devastating conflicts in the Tigray and Amhara regions. Faced with mounting domestic challenges, Prime Minister Abiy appears to be using Ethiopia’s historical quest for Red Sea access as a political distraction.

The euphoria and celebrations in the streets of Addis Ababa following the signing of the memorandum of understanding with Somaliland demonstrate the effectiveness of this strategy to divert attention from domestic challenges. To further this agenda, Abiy has also re-established Ethiopia’s naval force. If his gamble succeeds, he aspires to be remembered as one of Ethiopia’s greatest leaders.

The dangers of force

Ethiopia cannot acquire sea access through force or coercion without severe repercussions. Should it pursue this aggressive path, it risks igniting a regional conflict with devastating consequences.

The Horn of Africa is already a geopolitical tinderbox, and any territorial aggression could trigger widespread violence, humanitarian crises and the resurgence of militant activity. Abiy’s remarks have already heightened tension between Somalia and Ethiopia, rekindling nationalist sentiments in both countries.

His rhetoric has also drawn the attention of Egypt, which has its own longstanding dispute with Ethiopia over the Blue Nile. In response, Egypt has reportedly sent frigates to Somalia in August 2024 to deliver weapons, as reported by Reuters.

Somalia itself remains deeply divided. While an internationally recognised federal government exists, its authority is largely confined to the capital, secured by a 30,000-strong African Union Transition Mission in Somalia force. The militant group Al-Shabaab controls vast areas in the south, while the north and northeast remain under the control of parallel administrations.

Despite significant efforts — most notably by Turkey — to reconcile these divisions, tangible progress has been minimal. Abiy’s assertions have only further inflamed tensions, undermining political stability and fuelling distrust among the Somali population. Any further actions or remarks from Ethiopia risk radicalising the population and strengthening militant groups.

The alternative: Dialogue and cooperation

The solution is clear: Ethiopia must pursue diplomacy, not aggression. It should initiate discussions with Somalia to explore trade treaties and collaborative agreements. Somalia, eager to stabilise its economy, would likely welcome such initiatives. By fostering economic partnerships instead of provoking conflicts, Ethiopia can strengthen regional ties and secure its long-term interests without jeopardising the peace and stability of the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia’s forceful rhetoric and actions regarding sea access are reckless and short-sighted. In a region already burdened by conflict, such provocations could have disastrous consequences. The only viable path forward lies in dialogue, trade agreements and regional cooperation.

Ethiopia’s leaders must prioritise diplomacy over aggression — for the sake of their own country and the stability of the entire Horn of Africa. It is our hope that progress will be made in finding a long-term solution to Ethiopia’s ambitions for port access, as stipulated in the Ankara Declaration, where both nations committed to respecting each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

It is only a negotiated agreement that can lead to the establishment of mutually beneficial commercial arrangements for Ethiopia’s sea access, not coercion. Any agreement must fully uphold Somalia’s control over its coastal waters. 

Dr Abdirashid Elmi obtained his PhD in environmental science from McGill University and currently teaches environmental sciences at Kuwait University. He can be reached at ainanh63@yahoo.com

Dr Mohamed Musa obtained his PhD in physics from the University of British Columbia and currently teaches at the Gulf University of Science and Technology in Kuwait. He can be reached at beddel06@gmail.com